Complex aspects of climate change impacts on the cultivation of perennial energy crops in the Czech Republic

Abstract

Perennial energy crops, called also second-generation energy crops, can make a significant contribution to the renewable energy balance in Central European, land locked regions, in the future. When estimating the biomass potential of energy crops, possible impacts of ongoing climate change must be considered. Climate change in Central European conditions will result in an increase in average temperatures and especially in the amount and distribution of precipitation. This will be reflected in a change in the type of climate region assigned to each land plot. Climate change leads to a change in growing conditions, a change in yields of conventional and energy crops and to a change in the allocation of energy crops to land in the region. Analysis of production data from long-term field experiments shows that the varieties of second-generation energy crops are and will be capable of adapting to the current effects of climate change over the next two decades. Modelling of biomass potential in a GIS environment shows that climate change will result in a change in land allocation between short rotation coppice and Miscanthus. The manner in which land is selected for energy crops has a significant impact on biomass potential from second generation energy crop. The paper presents a methodology for estimating the impact of climate change on the biomass potential of perennial energy crops using the Czech Republic as an example.