Complex Adaptive Modeling Framework for Evaluating Adaptive Demand Management for Urban Water Resources Sustainability

Abstract

AbstractNew water resources management methodologies are needed to address increasing demands and future uncertainty for urban water resources. Adaptive water demand management strategies provide an approach to improve the efficiency of water system operations and meet water demands by adapting flexibility to increasing stresses, such as droughts. This study simulates adaptive water demand management through the development of a complex adaptive system modeling framework, which couples cellular automata modeling, agent-based modeling, and hydrologic modeling to simulate land-use change, consumer behaviors, management decisions, the rainfall-runoff process, and reservoir storage. The model is applied to simulate the effect of demand management strategies on reductions in municipal water demands and on the sustained storage in a surface water supply reservoir. Historic and projected climate change hydroclimatic time series are used to assess the effectiveness of domestic water restrictions, including outdoo...