Compilation and interpretation of photochemical model performance statistics published between 2006 and 2012

Abstract

Regulatory and scientific applications of photochemical models are typically evaluated by comparing model estimates to measured values. It is important to compare quantitative model performance metrics to a benchmark or other studies to provide confidence in the modeling results. Since strict model performance guidelines may not be appropriate for many applications, model evaluations presented in recent literature have been compiled to provide a general assessment of model performance over a broad range of modeling systems, modeling periods, intended use, and spatial scales. Operational model performance is compiled for ozone, total PM2.5, speciated PM2.5, and wet deposition of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and mercury. The common features of the model performance compiled from literature are photochemical models that have been applied over the United States or Canada and use modeling platforms intended to generally support research, regulatory or forecasting applications. A total of 69 peer-reviewed articles which include operational model evaluations and were published between 2006 and March 2012 are compiled to summarize typical model performance. The range of reported performance is presented in graphical and tabular form to provide context for operational performance evaluation of future photochemical model applications. In addition, recommendations are provided regarding which performance metrics are most useful for comparing model applications and the best approaches to match model estimates and observations in time and space for the purposes of metric aggregations.