Competitiveness of Air Taxis Regarding Door-To-Door Travel Time: A Race through Germany

Abstract

Door-to-door travel time within the European Union shall be reduced to less than four hours for 90 percent of all travelers, according to the goals of Flightpath 2050. Point-to-point thin-haul connections provided by air taxis can help to achieve this goal, as analyzed by academia, and envisioned by start-ups like the German e.SAT or the Swiss Dufour. To further examine the market potential for air taxis within Germany, a sophisticated transport model was set up comparing door-to-door travel times and cost for the established transport modes train, car, and CS-25 aircraft with a novel air taxi service capable of utilizing local CS-23 airfields. Moreover, important parameters for the success of air taxi services are analyzed in depth. For the purpose of this study, a piloted 5-seater aircraft with a required take-off distance of less than 800 m was considered and a reasonable price range for business trips comparable to a first-class train service ticket was investigated. In addition to existing analyses, this study also uses real-world data for train services and actually serviced routes of CS-25 aircraft. A figure for the state-of-the-art traffic volume and trip distribution on district level in Germany was adapted from the Traffic Interconnection Forecast 2030 of the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI). For these existing transport modes plus the proposed air taxi service, travel time and travel costs are calculated for each particular route using statistical models. Assuming a constant number of gross travelers on each route, the mode choices for each route are redistributed according to the value of travel time saved (VoTTS) and the according distribution of passengers willingness to pay for time savings. Results show that travel time on certain routes can be shortened by 50 percent resulting in an air taxi demand of at least 5000 air taxis overall. Market share, however, is strongly dependent on assumed price per kilometer. Hence, if industry can achieve a cost-level comparable to a first-class train ticket, a significant market share potential for air taxi services of 2.7 % of all business travel is forecasted by this study.