Abstract

The recent tragic events unfolding after Hurricane Katrina hit the US east coast has once again raised thoughts about and debate around the value of early warning and, in particular, what happens when one has early warning or intelligence of an impending threat or opportunity and then does nothing with that warning. Why does it seem as if the decision makers in the US were totally unprepared for the magnitude of the disaster? Was there ample warning that was not heeded? Can one learn from other events such as the December 2004 tsunami and the events of 11 September 2001? Will Hurricane Katrina take a prominent position in the history of intelligence failures? This article will attempt to answer that question.

Highlights

  • Katrina's devastation might be hard to comprehend but it was not unexpected

  • The recent tragic events unfolding after Hurricane Katrina hit the US east coast has once again raised thoughts about and debate around the value of early warning and, in particular, what happens when one has early warning or intelligence of an impending threat or opportunity and does nothing with that warning

  • Why does it seem as if the decision makers in the US were totally unprepared for the magnitude of the disaster? Was there ample warning that was not heeded? Can one learn from other events such as the December 2004 tsunami and the events of 11 September 2001? Will Hurricane Katrina take a prominent position in the history of intelligence failures? This article will attempt to answer that question

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Summary

Introduction

Katrina's devastation might be hard to comprehend but it was not unexpected. Major disaster areas were declared and emergency supplies were ready because there was ample warning of the ferocity of this hurricane. In addition one could ask: With all the predictions, information and reporting capabilities intact and with accurate forecasting, does this ensure that the right strategic decisions and planning will take place? This is a regular occurrence – in particular, larger companies start thinking they are invincible, ignoring indicators of potential threats and are often surprised.

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