Competitive dual-strain SIS epidemiological models with awareness programs in heterogeneous networks: two modeling approaches.

Abstract

Epidemic diseases and media campaigns are closely associated with each other. Considering most epidemics have multiple pathogenic strains, in this paper, we take the lead in proposing two multi-strain SIS epidemic models in heterogeneous networks incorporating awareness programs due to media. For the first model, we assume that the transmission rates for strain 1 and strain 2 depend on the level of awareness campaigns. For the second one, we further suppose that awareness divides susceptible population into two different subclasses. After defining the basic reproductive numbers for the whole model and each strain, we obtain the analytical conditions that determine the extinction, coexistence and absolute dominance of two strains. Moreover, we also formulate its optimal control problem and identify an optimal implementation pair of awareness campaigns using optimal control theory. Given the complexity of the second model, we use the numerical simulations to visualize its different types of dynamical behaviors. Through theoretical and numerical analysis of these two models, we discover some new phenomena. For example, during the persistence analysis of the first model, we find that the characteristic polynomials of two boundary equilibria may have a pair of pure imaginary roots, implying that Hopf bifurcation and periodic solutions may appear. Most strikingly, multistability occurs in the second model and the growth rate of awareness programs (triggered by the infection prevalence) has a multistage impact on the final size of two strains. The numerical results suggest that the spread of a two-strain epidemic can be controlled (even be eradicated) by taking the measures of enhancing awareness transmission, reducing memory fading of aware individuals and ensuring high-level influx and rapid growth of awareness programs appropriately.