Competitive and secure renewable hydrogen markets: Three strategic scenarios for the European Union

Abstract

The European Union (EU) considers renewable hydrogen a key priority for achieving climate neutrality and therefore needs to develop competitive and secure renewable hydrogen supplies. International trade could play a major role in meeting EU hydrogen needs and will require the creation of highly integrated markets between member states. This article analyzes three strategic scenarios in which the EU prioritizes energy independence, cost optimization, or energy security using an optimization model of international hydrogen trade based on production potentials and cost curves in EU countries and potential trade partners. The results show that, while the EU could become hydrogen independent, imports from neighboring countries could minimize overall costs despite higher transportation costs. However, imports from neighboring countries may reproduce past energy dependence patterns. Our results show that to limit reliance on a single supplier without increasing overall costs, the EU could leverage long-distance imports.