Competition for water induced by transnational land acquisitions for agriculture

Davide Danilo Chiarelli,Gopal Penny,Paolo D’Odorico,Maria Cristina Rulli,Nathaniel D Mueller,Jampel Dell’Angelo,Kyle Frankel Davis,Marc F Müller

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28077-2

Abstract

The ongoing agrarian transition from smallholder farming to large-scale commercial agriculture promoted by transnational large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) often aims to increase crop yields through the expansion of irrigation. LSLAs are playing an increasingly prominent role in this transition. Yet it remains unknown whether foreign LSLAs by agribusinesses target areas based on specific hydrological conditions and whether these investments compete with the water needs of existing local users. Here we combine process-based crop and hydrological modelling, agricultural statistics, and georeferenced information on individual transnational LSLAs to evaluate emergence of water scarcity associated with LSLAs. While conditions of blue water scarcity already existed prior to land acquisitions, these deals substantially exacerbate blue water scarcity through both the adoption of water-intensive crops and the expansion of irrigated cultivation. These effects lead to new rival water uses in 105 of the 160 studied LSLAs (67% of the acquired land). Combined with our findings that investors target land with preferential access to surface and groundwater resources to support irrigation, this suggests that LSLAs often appropriate water resources to the detriment of local users.

Highlights

The ongoing agrarian transition from smallholder farming to large-scale commercial agriculture promoted by transnational large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) often aims to increase crop yields through the expansion of irrigation
We evaluate the propensity for LSLAs to fall in either of these two categories using a sample of 160 georeferenced foreign large-scale land investments that account for 4.1 million hectares across 195 locations
Deals preferentially target areas with lower-than-average green water scarcity, meaning they occur on land that is more suitable for rainfed production than typical croplands within targeted countries (Fig. 3). These results suggest that hydrological conditions, proximity to freshwater resources for irrigation and soil water for rainfed production, may influence what areas are targeted by investors for LSLAs

Summary

Competition for water induced by transnational land acquisitions for agriculture

Davide Danilo Chiarelli 1✉, Paolo D’Odorico 2, Marc F. The establishment of commercial agriculture in these areas is expected to accelerate the development of large-scale irrigation, leading to blue water appropriations that, in the majority of the cases included in this study, will exacerbate rivalry and competition with local farmers, thereby enhancing potential threats and impacts on local systems of production, food security, rural livelihoods, and ecosystems (e.g., Dell’Angelo et al.[4], Dell’Angelo, D’Odorico, & Rulli[22]; Müller et al.[15]). Water use within the acquired land may affect water availability within the investment area or adjacent farms and compete with the water demands of downstream users through upstream blue water withdrawals for irrigation as well as a reduction in downstream runoff resulting from increased green water uses at upstream locations (Box 1) This water competition will compound and further propagate if downstream smallholder farmers adapt to these new water scarcity conditions by themselves increasing their reliance on potentially unsustainable irrigation

Discussion

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Methods

Additional information