Competition between the ports of Hong Kong and Singapore: a structural vector error correction model to forecast the demand for container handling services

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to provide the Hong Kong government with an alternative forecast of container throughput, by studying various interactive relationships between major ports in East and Southeast Asia. As the demand for container handling services is 'derived' from the demand for imports, the resulting market shares for the container handling services gripped by different regions inevitably become a mirror image of the relative competitiveness of their exports. When the markets of the two ports overlap, their market shares will become a function of the prices they charge and how well they meet the needs of the shippers and shipping lines. A vector error correction model (VECM) with structural identification was set up to capture this kind of trade-interdependency and oligopolistic relationship in the East and Southeast Asian market for container handling services. In the course of so-doing, the upward sloping supply curves and downward sloping demand curve for the container handling services provided by Hong Kong and Singapore are identified from the model. Interestingly, the impulse response functions display what is reminiscent of the trade-interdependency and oligopolistic relationship. The forecast of Hong Kong container throughput generated by the structural VECM is then compared with that obtained by the Hong Kong Port Development Board (PDB). The sensitivity analysis shows that, in all possible cases, the structural VECM produces higher growth paths for the Hong Kong container throughput than the PDB does and, hence, suggests an earlier construction of new terminals.