Competing for Constituents: Trends in Terrorist Service Provision

Abstract

ABSTRACTWhat shapes the types of services terrorist and insurgent groups provide? Research on these organizations provides mounting evidence that understanding the nonviolent strategies of violent groups is critical to a complete picture of conflict dynamics. We add to this work, using a longitudinal measure of terrorist service provision coverage across a number of service sectors to evaluate hypotheses concerning the drivers of terrorist service provision to understand which services groups provide. Here, we are interested in understanding patterns of service provision: which groups provide services where, and whether and how that decision is reactive to the state context. Specifically we look to see if groups are likely to provide services as complements or substitutes to the state in the competition for constituents. We find terrorist groups challenge the state in service provision in less capital-intensive sectors, such as education, while avoiding competition in more capital-intensive sectors, such as healthcare. We also find service provision varies over a group’s lifetime, likely in response to counterterrorism efforts. As a group ages and strengthens, it is also more likely to provide a broader array of services. Finally, we observe that service-providers tend to have longer lifespans.