Abstract
AbstractBy using American state-level data from 1999 to 2008, this article explores how the recent immigrant influx has influenced public welfare spending in the American states. By integrating the race/ethnicity and globalization compensation theory, I hypothesize that immigration will increase welfare spending in states with a bleak job market and exclusive state immigrant welfare policy; in contrast, immigration will decrease welfare spending in states with a good job market and inclusive state immigrant welfare policy. Empirical tests show evidence for both hypotheses, suggesting that the applicability of general political science theories depends on a combination of state policy and economic contexts.
Highlights
The University of Rhode Island Faculty have made this article openly available
This long-term effect of foreign-born population, according to De Boef and Keele (2008), is reflected by the coefficients of Foreign-born population t-1 (b=-.005; SE=.002) and Welfare Spending t-1 (b=-.037; SE=.025), and I calculate it as -.14.11 After controlling for other factors, a one-unit increase in foreign-born population stocks will result in a decrease in public welfare spending by .14 units (i.e., .14 percentage point) in the long run
Because coefficients in an interaction model are difficult for direct interpretation, I use Figure 3 to show the marginal effects of immigration on change of welfare spending conditional on the two state contextual variables (Brambor, Clark, & Golder, 2006)
Summary
The University of Rhode Island Faculty have made this article openly available. Please let us know how Open Access to this research benefits you. The demographic composition of the post-1970 immigrant influx is quite different from the existing American population, with a majority of the newcomers in this wave from Central and Latin America and more than a third of them undocumented and relatively low-skilled (Passel, 2005; see Card, 2009). This immigration wave has caused profound changes to the economic and political landscapes of the U.S, including the American welfare state
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