Comparisons of Multipliers from Input-Output and Economic Base Models

Abstract

Planning for regional growth and development often involves economic inpact analysis. Driving forces for most impact analyses are multipliers derived from input-output (I-0) or economic base models (Hushak 1979; Leistritz 1980; Pleeter 1980). Development of survey based 1-0 models incurs substantial costs and time. Increasingly, researchers have focused their attention on the development of nonsurvey I-0 models using various techniques to reduce a national model to a local level. Several researchers have then compared results of survey and nonsurvey models developed for the same area (e.g., Morrison 1974; Park 1981; Schaffer 1969; Stevens 1983). This article presents additional empirical comparisons of multipliers for three different models. Multipliers from a nonsurvey, simply constructed 1-0 model developed by the authors are compared with a semisurvey, intensively developed model; both of these models are for the entire state of Missouri in 1972. Second, the same nonsurvey model is used to estimate earnings multipliers for Missouri's nonmetropolitan counties in 1977-79. These are then compared with economic base multipliers for nonmetropolitan counties in a Midwest region. Implications for using these various sets of multipliers are noted, along with additional considerations for judiciously applying 1-0 multipliers.