Comparisons and predictions of intercity population migration propensity in major urban clusters in China: based on use of the Baidu index

Abstract

The development of the Internet and big data have made it possible to study population migration and flow between cities. This study analyzes the probability of the population migration propensity of China’s three major urban clusters, identifies the direction of population movements, and uses Markov chains to predict the probability of population migration propensity moving forward in order to assess the intercity population migration trends of urban clusters in the future. Internet search engine data is used, and a population migration propensity intensity model is used for calculations. The results show that the Pearl River Delta urban cluster and the Yangtze River Delta urban clusters are areas of active population migration, and that intercity population migration is a part of this activity. Intercity population migration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban cluster is not as active as it is in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta urban cluster. Although the physical distance between Beijing and surrounding cities is relatively small, the correlation degree of migration propensity is not high. In the future, Shanghai, Nanjing, and Zhoushan in the Yangtze River Delta urban cluster; Zhuhai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Huizhou, and Zhongshan in the Pearl River Delta urban cluster; and Tianjin in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban cluster will be the main destinations of China’s population migration.