Comparison of vulnerability to catastrophic wind between Abies plantation forests and natural mixed forests in northern Japan

Abstract

AbstractThe risk of extreme events due to weather and climate change, such as winds of unprecedented magnitude, is predicted to increase throughout this century. Artificial ecosystems, such as coniferous plantation forests, can suffer irreversible deterioration due to even a slight change in environmental conditions. However, few studies have examined the effects of converting natural forests to plantations on their vulnerability to catastrophic winds. By modelling the 2004 windthrow event of Typhoon Songda in northern Japan using the random forest machine learning method, we answered two questions: do Abies plantation forests and natural mixed forests differ in their vulnerability to strong winds and how do winds, topography and forest structure affect their vulnerability. Our results show that Abies plantation forests are more vulnerable to catastrophic wind than natural mixed forests under most conditions. However, the windthrow process was common to both types of forests, and the behaviour of wind inside the forests may determine the windthrow probability. Future management options for adapting to climate change were proposed based on these findings, including modifications of plantation forest structure to reduce windthrow risk and reconversion of plantations to natural forests.