Comparison of various surrogate obesity indicators as predictors of cardiovascular mortality in four European populations

Abstract

Body mass index (BMI) is the most commonly used surrogate marker for evaluating the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in relation to general obesity, while abdominal obesity indicators have been proposed to be more informative in risk prediction. A prospective cohort study consisting of 46 651 Europeans aged 24-99 years was conducted to investigate the relationship between CVD mortality and different obesity indicators including BMI, waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-stature ratio (WSR), A Body Shape Index (ABSI) and waist-to-hip-to-height ratio (WHHR). Hazard ratio (HR) was estimated by the Cox proportional hazards model using age as timescale, and compared using paired homogeneity test. During a median follow-up of 7.9 years, 3435 participants died, 1409 from CVD. All obesity indicators were positively associated with increased risk of CVD mortality, with HRs (95% confidence intervals) per standard deviation increase of 1.19 (1.12-1.27) for BMI, 1.29 (1.21-1.37) for WC, 1.28 (1.20-1.36) for WHR, 1.35 (1.27-1.44) for WSR, 1.34 (1.26-1.44) for ABSI and 1.34 (1.25-1.42) for WHHR in men and 1.37 (1.24-1.51), 1.49 (1.34-1.65), 1.45 (1.31-1.60), 1.52 (1.37-1.69), 1.32 (1.18-1.48) and 1.45 (1.31-1.61) in women, respectively. The prediction was stronger with abdominal obesity indicators than with BMI or ABSI (P<0.05 for all paired homogeneity tests). WSR appeared to be the strongest predictor among all the indicators, with a linear relationship with CVD mortality in both men and women. Abdominal obesity indicators such as WC, WHR, WSR and WHHR, are stronger predictors for CVD mortality than general obesity indicator of BMI.