Comparison of Use of Health Care Services and Spending for Unauthorized Immigrants vs Authorized Immigrants or US Citizens Using a Machine Learning Model

Abstract

Knowledge about use of health care services (health care utilization) and expenditures among unauthorized immigrant populations is uncertain because of limitations in ascertaining legal status in population data. To examine health care utilization and expenditures that are attributable to unauthorized and authorized immigrants vs US-born individuals. This cross-sectional study used the data on documentation status from the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey (LAFANS) to develop a random forest classifier machine learning model. K-fold cross-validation was used to test model performance. The LAFANS is a randomized, multilevel, in-person survey of households residing in Los Angeles County, California, consisting of 2 waves. Wave 1 began in April 2000 and ended in January 2002, and wave 2 began in August 2006 and ended in December 2008. The machine learning model was then applied to a nationally representative database, the 2016-2017 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), to predict health care expenditures and utilization among unauthorized and authorized immigrants and US-born individuals. A generalized linear model analyzed health care expenditures. Logistic regression modeling estimated dichotomous use of emergency department (ED), inpatient, outpatient, and office-based physician visits by immigrant groups with adjusting for confounding factors. Data were analyzed from May 1, 2019, to October 14, 2020. Self-reported immigration status (US-born, authorized, and unauthorized status). Annual health care expenditures per capita and use of ED, outpatient, inpatient, and office-based physician care. Of 47 199 MEPS respondents with nonmissing data, 35 079 (74.3%) were US born, 10 816 (22.9%) were authorized immigrants, and 1304 (2.8%) were unauthorized immigrants (51.7% female; mean age, 47.6 [95% CI, 47.4-47.8] years). Compared with authorized immigrants and US-born individuals, unauthorized immigrants were more likely to be aged 18 to 44 years (80.8%), Latino (96.3%), and Spanish speaking (95.2%) and to have less than 12 years of education (53.7%). Half of unauthorized immigrants (47.1%) were uninsured compared with 15.9% of authorized immigrants and 6.0% of US-born individuals. Mean annual health care expenditures per person were $1629 (95% CI, $1330-$1928) for unauthorized immigrants, $3795 (95% CI, $3555-$4035) for authorized immigrants, and $6088 (95% CI, $5935-$6242) for US-born individuals. Contrary to much political discourse in the US, this cross-sectional study found no evidence that unauthorized immigrants are a substantial economic burden on safety net facilities such as EDs. This study illustrates the value of machine learning in the study of unauthorized immigrants using large-scale, secondary databases.