Comparison of Two Major Staging Systems in Predicting Survival and Recommendation of Postoperative Radiotherapy Based on the 11th Japanese Classification for Esophageal Carcinoma After Curative Resection

Abstract

To compare the prognostic predictive power of the 11th Japan Esophageal Society (JES) system with the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) system in patients with thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (TESCC), and to estimate the survival benefits of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) based on substage of the JES system.Area under the curve (AUC) values of receiver operating characteristic curve were calculated to evaluate prognostic efficacy. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was conducted to balance the two groups (surgery only [S group] or surgery plus postoperative radiotherapy [S+RT group]) across substages of the 11th JES system according to independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) identified using the Cox proportional hazards regression.A total of 2960 patients were eligible. The 5-year OS AUC for the 8th AJCC system was significantly higher than that for the 11th JES system (0.701 vs. 0.675, P < 0.001). Before PSM, PORT significantly improved 5-year OS rates for patients in stage III and IVA by 9.1% (P < 0.001) and 21.1% (P < 0.001), respectively. After PSM, the 5-year OS rates in stage II, III, and IVA of the S+RT group were significantly higher than those in the S group (70.9%, 39.7%, and 35.1% vs. 57.8%, 27.2%, and 10.3%, respectively; P < 0.001).The 11th JES system was less capable of predicting prognosis than the 8th AJCC system and patients in stage III of the JES system were highly recommended to undergo PORT.