Comparison of two frailty indices in predicting life-threatening morbidity and mortality among older patients undergoing elective high-risk abdominal surgery.

Abstract

Frailty predicts an increased risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality. Comparison of the predictive performance between two deficit accumulation models of frailty, the modified frailty index (mFI) and the revised-Risk Analysis Index (RAI-rev), is poorly understood. This study compared the predictive abilities of the above two frailty indices in predicting life-threatening morbidity and mortality among older patients following elective high-risk abdominal surgery. This retrospective cohort study extracted perioperative data of older patients (age ≥65 years) undergoing elective high-risk abdominal surgery at a single institution between January 2018 and December 2020. Preoperative frailty was screened by mFI and RAI-rev scoring systems. The primary outcome was the composite of postoperative life-threatening morbidity and mortality during hospitalization. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the association of the two frailty indices with the primary outcome. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was employed to test the predictive performances of the two frailty instruments in predicting the composite primary outcome. The difference between the area under the curves (AUCs) was assessed by DeLong's test. 1,132 older patients (mean age, 73.4 ± 6.2 years; 63.9% male) were included. Of these, 107 (9.5%) developed postoperative life-threatening morbidity and mortality. In multivariable logistic regression analyses, rising continuous frailty scores (mFI: adjusted OR 1.319 per 0.09-point increase in score, 95% CI 1.151-1.511, p < 0.001; RAI-rev: adjusted OR 1.052 per 1-point increase in score, 95% CI 1.018-1.087, p = 0.002) as well as dichotomized frailty measures (mFI ≥0.27: adjusted OR 2.059, 95% CI 1.328-3.193, p = 0.001; RAI-rev ≥45: adjusted OR 1.862, 95% CI 1.188-2.919, p = 0.007) were associated with increased odds of the primary outcome separately. ROC curve analysis showed that the discrimination of mFI and RAI-rev scores for the life-threatening morbidity and mortality was poor and comparable (AUC: 0.598 [95% CI 0.569-0.627] vs. 0.613 [95% CI 0.583-0.641]; DeLong's test: Z = 0.375, p = 0.7075). High mFI and RAI-rev scores were associated with an increased risk of life-threatening morbidity and mortality in older patients undergoing elective high-risk abdominal surgery. However, both frailty indices displayed poor discrimination for postoperative life-threatening morbidity and mortality.