Comparison of time-based versus state–space stand growth models for tropical hybrid Eucalyptus clonal plantations in Sumatera, Indonesia

Abstract

The pulp and paper industry in Indonesia is the tenth largest producer in the world, with Acacia and Eucalyptus as the main genera used for production; however, limited publications exist related to Eucalyptus growth models in Indonesia compared with other regions. Time-based models have been developed in which height, stand density, and basal area are predicted based on initial conditions and age. In contrast, a state–space approach utilizes the rate of change of these three state variables. Previous direct comparisons of these two approaches are generally limited. Consequently, the objective of this study was to compare two stand-level growth modeling approaches for Eucalyptus hybrid species on Sumatera (Sumatra) Island using both time-based and state–space methods. Our results indicate that dynamic models using either time-based or state–space approaches are adequate for predicting stand parameters to rotation age. A modified Bazukis matrix indicated that the behavior of both methods produced reliable predictions that were biologically reasonable in terms of stand development; however, the time-based approach provided better performance than the state–space approach on a variety of equivalence tests and goodness-of-fit statistics. Overall, the analysis highlights the advantages and disadvantages of these two commonly used, yet highly contrasting, stand-level growth modeling approaches, which need further consideration and evaluation.