Comparison of three‐parameter probability distributions for representing annual extreme and partial duration precipitation series

Abstract

Performance of 8 three‐parameter probability distributions for representing annual extreme and partial duration precipitation data at stations in the northeastern and southeastern United States is investigated. Particular attention is paid to fidelity on the right tail, through use of a bootstrap procedure simulating extrapolation on the right tail beyond the data. It is found that the beta‐κ distribution best describes the extreme right tail of annual extreme series, and the beta‐P distribution is best for the partial duration data. The conventionally employed two‐parameter Gumbel distribution is found to substantially underestimate probabilities associated with the larger precipitation amounts for both annual extreme and partial duration data. Fitting the distributions using left‐censored data did not result in improved fits to the right tail.