Abstract
Spread of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is influenced by an increase in air temperature due to changes in weather and population density so that there is a lot of exchange of dengue virus through the bite of the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Forecasting models are needed to predict the number of DHF patients in the future so that monitoring of the number of DHF patients can be carried out as anticipation and consideration of decision making. Forecasting the number of patients is based on actual data within 2 (two) previous years by comparing the two methods, namely trend moment and double moving average. To measure the accuracy of the forecasting results from the two forecasting methods, tracking signal and moving range are used. Based on the test results, it shows that the forecasting results are said to be good because no one has passed the upper control limit and lower control limit values so that the difference between the actual data and the forecasting results is not too significant and the trend moment more recommended because the difference in actual data and forecasting results are approached and shown in the pattern graph by looking at the data difference in each period.
Highlights
Predictions of future events are rarely made with certainty and can, at best, be described in probabilistic terms [1]
Trend moment method includes forecasting method which in its technique uses statistical calculations and certain mathematical calculations aims to determine the straightline function instead of the dashed line formed by the company's historical data
Where ΣY is the cumulative number of data on the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) patients; ΣX is the sum of time periods; and ΣXY is the number of data the number of patients multiplied by time period
Summary
Predictions of future events are rarely made with certainty and can, at best, be described in probabilistic terms [1]. Forecasting can be applied to predict the health sector or in this case predict the number of dengue fever patients by looking at data and information in the past. From the forecasting procedure that has been described in this study conducted a comparison test method and forecasting method performance by measuring the accuracy and accuracy of forecasting results. Forecasting is the knowledge and art to predict what will be happened in the future at the present time. In doing the forecasting, it must contain data and information of the past. Past data and information are behavior that occurs along with various conditions at that time [4]. There are prediction methods that are qualitative and quantitative. In most cases quantitative forecasting method such as Journal homepage: http://beei.org
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