Abstract
Price is the most important economical factor which suppliers and demanders in each market, especially in organized markets such as commodity exchanges, base their decisions on. According to the importance of amount and direction of price changes, forecasting its future values is necessary for market participants. The aim of this study is forecasting the future values of prices in Iran commodity exchange, based on historical data of this market. In this study, the future prices of corn in Iran commodity exchange were forecasted, utilizing time series analysis, simulation approach and technical analysis because of the large share of corn in trades of this market. The results of the present study indicated that all three approaches show a bull market condition for corn during the next working days. However, the severity of price rising is different across these three approaches. Time series analysis showed the weakest increasing trend; technical analysis showed the target prices or the level of future prices just in few cases, while the simulation approach showed the direction of price changes in the future. Key words: Price forecasting, time series analysis, simulation approach, technical analysis, Iran commodity exchange.
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