Abstract

AimsThis study aimed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of the metabolic syndrome with the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) to screen for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a Shanghai population.MethodsParticipants aged 25-64 years were recruited from a Shanghai population from July 2019 to March 2020. Each participant underwent a standard metabolic work-up, including clinical examination with anthropometry. Glucose status was tested using hemoglobin A1c (HbAlc), 2h-post-load glucose (2hPG), and fasting blood glucose (FBG). The FINDRISC questionnaire and the metabolic syndrome were examined. The performance of the FINDRISC was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC).ResultsOf the 713 subjects, 9.1% were diagnosed with prediabetes, whereas 5.2% were diagnosed with T2DM. A total of 172 subjects had the metabolic syndrome. A higher FINDRISC score was positively associated with the prevalence of T2DM and the metabolic syndrome. Multivariable linear regression analysis demonstrated that the FINDRISC had a linear regression relationship with 2hPG levels (b’= 036, p < 0.0001). The AUC-ROC of the FINDRISC to identify subjects with T2DM among the total population was 0.708 (95% CI 0.639–0.776), the sensitivity was 44.6%, and the specificity was 90.1%, with 11 as the cut-off point. After adding FBG or 2hPG to the FINDRISC, the AUC-ROC among the total population significantly increased to 0.785 (95% CI 0.671–0.899) and 0.731 (95% CI 0.619–0.843), respectively, while the AUC-ROC among the female group increased to 0.858 (95% CI 0.753–0.964) and 0.823 (95% CI 0.730–0.916), respectively (p < 0.001). The AUC-ROC of the metabolic syndrome to identify subjects with T2DM among the total and female population was 0.805 (95% CI 0.767–0.844) and 0.830 (95% CI 0.788–0.872), respectively, with seven as the cut-off point.ConclusionsThe metabolic syndrome performed better than the FINDRISC model. The metabolic syndrome and the FINDRISC with FBG or 2hPG in a two-step screening model are both efficacious clinical practices for predicting T2DM in a Shanghai population.

Highlights

  • The increasing prevalence of diabetes, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), has reached epidemic proportions worldwide [1]

  • There was no significant difference between men and women in terms of their risk of developing T2DM (p = 0.067)

  • The AUC-Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) of the metabolic syndrome to identify subjects with T2DM among the total and female population was 0.805 and 0.830, respectively, with seven as the cut-off point

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Summary

Introduction

The increasing prevalence of diabetes, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), has reached epidemic proportions worldwide [1]. In 2019, 463 million people was estimated to suffer from diabetes, and this number was projected to reach 578 million by 2030, and 700 million by 2045 [2]. A recent study [3] indicated that the total number of patients with diabetes in mainland China was approximately 129.8 million (70.4 million men and 59.4 million women). Follow-up studies in China, Finland, and the United States [4] have found that early lifestyle and drug interventions can delay or reduce the risk of developing T2DM by 30–60%. The responsibility for the care of T2DM patients has been transferred from secondary to primary care in the last two decades, among which prediction tools are crucial for identifying individuals at high risk of T2DM [9]

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