Abstract

This study's objective was to compare the effectiveness of the delirium prediction model (pre-deliric) and the early prediction model (E-pre-deliric) in delirium prediction in an intensive care unit (ICU) according to the Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist (ICDSC). Our aim was to determine these models' usability and cut-off values for ICU patients. We classified the studied patients based on their highest ICDSC scores (tested twice daily) during ICU hospitalization. ICDSC scores of 4 or higher indicated positive results for delirium, whereas a score of 0 represented a negative result. We recorded the patients' demographic and clinical details and characteristics and calculated their E-pre-deliric and pre-deliric version 1 and version 2 scores. To evaluate the effectiveness of the models, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Two hundred fifty patients (55.6% males, mean age 60.6±18.7 years) participated in this study. Their mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score was 17.0±9.1. Delirium was more common in men, patients of older ages, those with high APACHE-II scores, those who had undergone urgent admissions, those with histories of trauma, those with high urea or creatinine values and those who had undergone sedation or mechanical ventilation. Compared to patients who did not develop delirium, those who did had longer ICU stays and hospital stays, as well as greater mortality risk. The cutoff values for the patients' pre-deliric version 1, pre-deliric version 2 and E-pre-deliric scores were 38% [area under ROC (AUROC)=1], 22% (AUROC=1) and 28% (AUROC=1), respectively. This study is the first to compare the pre-deliric and E-pre-deliric prediction models. These models' validity and reliability were acceptable. They were clinically useful, and we identified their cut-off values. These models provide options for early detection of delirium and are easily applicable in the ICU.

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