Comparison of storm surge/tide predictions between a 2-D operational forecast system, the regional tide/storm surge model (RTSM), and the 3-D regional ocean modeling system (ROMS)

Abstract

In this study, we compare simulated storm surges run on the two-dimensional operational storm surge/tide forecast system (regional tide/storm surge model (RTSM), based on Princeton ocean model) of the Korean Meteorological Administration and the three-dimensional regional ocean modeling system (ROMS), using observational data from 30 coastal tidal stations of three typhoons that struck Korea in 2007. A maximum positive bias of 6.8 cm was found for Typhoon Manyi predicted by ROMS, while a maximum negative bias of −7.4 cm was shown for Typhoon Nari predicted by RTSM. For all three typhoons, the total averaged root mean square error was 10 cm for the two models. Although the statistical results for the storm surge comparison between the observations and RTSM predictions were better than those for ROMS, with the exception of Typhoon Nari, the spatial and temporal variations of ROMS were larger than those of RTSM.