Comparison of short‐period daytime convective rainfall accumulations with total column precipitable water: Derivation of an operational forecasting technique

Abstract

AbstractA major forecasting challenge is predicting the likely intensity of rainfall in convective situations in which intense short‐period rainfall can lead to surface water flooding. The study demonstrates a useful correlation between precipitable water and 1 hr gauge‐derived rainfall accumulations in situations with deep instability and relatively slack flow in depth. The correlation forms the basis of a forecasting technique, independent of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts of rainfall, being applied at the UK's Met Office Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC).