Comparison of scenarios on futures of European food chains

Abstract

The paper compares recent scenarios on the European food and agriculture sector, based on the own scenario writing in the frame of the project “Trends in food supply and demand and their consequences” of the Office of Technology Assessment at the German Parliament. The aim is to work out common points and differing assumptions so that a better understanding of possible futures for European food chains can be achieved. Scenarios from technology assessment, foresight and sustainability research activities in different European countries are included. They focus in different ways on technological developments, production systems, policy arrangements and/or societal changes. Furthermore, the food chain is not mapped always adequately, which means the main focus is partly on agriculture. The driving forces for the scenarios are more or less differentiated, with interesting analogies. Finally, nearly all compared scenario papers work with a qualitative approach and have a medium-term time horizon. Lessons from the comparison are that the open future of European food chains depends in great parts from uncertainties in three areas: - technological uncertainties, - societal uncertainties, and - political uncertainties. At least for the European food sector, the important influence of societal values and developments cannot be denied. The analysed scenario studies give a first insight which impacts on the food chain can result from future societal developments. For the political uncertainties, different paths are seen for the future shaping of the Common Agricultural Policy – varying from liberalisation to enforced regionalisation. At the same time, this indicates that a comprehensive policy for the food chain is still missing and it is uncertain if such a policy can be achieved. The three areas of uncertainties are also key elements to examine the realisation problems of sustainability strategies. More investigation is needed to understand better the influence of technological, societal and political framework conditions on sustainability strategies for the food and agriculture sector, to analyse conflicts between different sustainability goals, and to identify possible options for action which are robust under different and also unfavourable conditions.