Comparison of Regional Transportation and Transformation Models of Atmospheric Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Research on Key Influencing Factors: Take the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region as Example

Abstract

In this study, taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an example, CMAQ and BETR models were constructed to carry out numerical simulation for the pyrene (Pyr) and benzo[a] pyrene (BaP) in 2014. The model results were compared and evaluated for the atmospheric transportation and transformation of PAHs. Additionally, the XGBoost model was used to identify the key atmospheric physicochemical processes and parameters that affect the environmental behavior of PAHs in the CMAQ. The results showed that the ratio of the simulated value of BETR and annual average value of CMAQ to the measured annual average value was between 1/2 and 2, and the seasonal trend of the simulated concentrations of Pyr and BaP from the CMAQ model were basically consistent with the measured values, which verified the reliability of the two types of models. At the same time, the simulated concentration of the CMAQ model averaged from 9 km grid to 27 km grid and was comparable to the BETR concentration. The results showed that the average concentrations of Pyr and BaP in the BETR model were approximately 1.59 and 1.38 times those of the CMAQ simulation concentrations, respectively, indicating that the two models had good comparability in terms of average annual concentration level and spatial distribution. The SHAP-based variable importance on the XGBoost model showed that boundary layer height was the most significant meteorological factor affecting the transportation and transformation of Pyr and BaP, accounting for 22%-35% of all factors, and sometimes even exceeded the emissions for certain cities and pollutants. The boundary layer height was significantly negatively correlated with the concentration of PAHs. Wind speed was a secondary factor affecting the concentration of PAHs and was negatively correlated with the PAHs, whereas the influence of wind direction on the concentration of PAHs varied.