Abstract

Radiomic feature analysis has been shown to be effective at analyzing diagnostic images to model cancer outcomes. It has not yet been established how to best combine radiomic features in cancer patients with multifocal tumors. As the number of patients with multifocal metastatic cancer continues to rise, there is a need for improving personalized patient-level prognosis to better inform treatment. We compared six mathematical methods of combining radiomic features of 3,596 tumors in 831 patients with multiple brain metastases and evaluated the performance of these aggregation methods using three survival models: a standard Cox proportional hazards model, a Cox proportional hazards model with LASSO regression, and a random survival forest. Across all three survival models, the weighted average of the largest three metastases had the highest concordance index (95% confidence interval) of 0.627 (0.595–0.661) for the Cox proportional hazards model, 0.628 (0.591–0.666) for the Cox proportional hazards model with LASSO regression, and 0.652 (0.565–0.727) for the random survival forest model. This finding was consistent when evaluating patients with different numbers of brain metastases and different tumor volumes. Radiomic features can be effectively combined to estimate patient-level outcomes in patients with multifocal brain metastases. Future studies are needed to confirm that the volume-weighted average of the largest three tumors is an effective method for combining radiomic features across other imaging modalities and tumor types.

Highlights

  • Radiomic feature analysis has been shown to be effective at analyzing diagnostic images to model cancer outcomes

  • Radiomic features have shown the ability to risk stratify cancer ­patients[5,6], radiomic analysis has largely been limited to the evaluation of individual tumor volumes

  • Prognostication for patients with metastatic disease is an area of increasing need, given as many as 49% of lung cancer patients within the United States are diagnosed with metastatic disease upon initial ­presentation[7]

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Summary

Introduction

Radiomic feature analysis has been shown to be effective at analyzing diagnostic images to model cancer outcomes It has not yet been established how to best combine radiomic features in cancer patients with multifocal tumors. We compared six mathematical methods of combining radiomic features of 3,596 tumors in 831 patients with multiple brain metastases and evaluated the performance of these aggregation methods using three survival models: a standard Cox proportional hazards model, a Cox proportional hazards model with LASSO regression, and a random survival forest. Across all three survival models, the weighted average of the largest three metastases had the highest concordance index (95% confidence interval) of 0.627 (0.595–0.661) for the Cox proportional hazards model, 0.628 (0.591– 0.666) for the Cox proportional hazards model with LASSO regression, and 0.652 (0.565–0.727) for the random survival forest model This finding was consistent when evaluating patients with different numbers of brain metastases and different tumor volumes.

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