Comparison of proxy records of climate change and solar forcing

Abstract

The role of solar variability as a cause of decadal‐centennial scale climate change continues to be a topic of debate. Herein we compare two estimates of solar variability since 1600 with two estimates of northern hemispheric temperature change. Sun‐climate correlations vary between 0.57–0.74 and are significant at the 95% level. However, the small number of oscillations in the time series suggests to us that longer records are needed for a more convincing demonstration of a significant sun‐climate linkage. Forcing of an energy balance model with the solar time series indicates that modest amounts of solar variability and climate sensitivity yield temperature variations that represent a significant fraction of the inferred changes during the Little Ice Age. This latter result further supports the hypothesis that solar variability may be significantly contributing to climate change on decadal‐centennial time scales.