Abstract
Due to the recent appearance of shares socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, there have been many studies that compare the results between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)5 and CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs). This study attempted to project future drought characteristics in the Cheongmicheon watershed using SSP2-4.5 of Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-coupled model (ACCESS-CM2) in addition to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 of ACCESS 1-3 of the same institute. The historical precipitation and temperature data of ACCESS-CM2 were generated better than those of ACCESS 1-3. Two meteorological drought indices, namely, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to project meteorological drought while a hydrological drought index, Standardized Streamflow Index (SDI), was used to project the hydrological drought characteristics. The metrological data of GCMs were bias-corrected using quantile mapping method and the streamflow was obtained using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and bias-corrected meteorological data. As a result, there were large differences of drought occurrences and severities between RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5 for the values of SPI, SPEI, and SDI. The differences in the minimum values of drought index between near (2021–2060) and far futures (2061–2100) were very small in SSP2-4.5, while those in RCP4.5 were very large. In addition, the longest drought period from SDI was the largest because the variation in precipitation usually affects the streamflow with a lag. Therefore, it was concluded that it is important to consider both CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs in establishing the drought countermeasures for the future period.
Highlights
Unlike meteorological droughts, hydrological droughts do not occur at a small and short lack of precipitation, and it can be confirmed that droughts are occur at a small and short lack of precipitation, and it can be confirmed that droughts are relatively constant (Figure 9)
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) for 3, 6, 9, and 12-month durations were calculated using the data of precipitation and temperature for RCP4.5 of ACCESS1-3 and SSP2-4.5 of ACCESS CM2
Occurrences and severities of droughts under RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5 were compared as shown in Table 9 for SPI, Table for SPEI, and Table for SDI
Summary
There have been tremendous studies on the analysis of drought characteristics in Korea for the historical periods [9,10,11,12] and future projection using general circulation models (GCMs) [13,14,15,16]. The new GCMs showed better performances for the historical periods due to the use of more observed data and the improvement of physical simulation engine for South Korea [23], China [24,25], India [26], Tibet [27], Iran [28], Africa [29], and South Asia [30]. The study area is the Cheongmicheon watershed, which has suffered from frequent droughts and has been a popular subject in Korea [39]
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