Comparison of probabilistic and deterministic approaches for setting operating reserve in systems with high penetration of wind power

Abstract

The increasing levels of wind power penetration motivated a revisitation of methods for setting operating reserve requirements for the next and current day. System Operators (SO) are now moving from deterministic intro probabilistic approaches, and including wind power forecasts in their decision-making problems. In this manuscript, a probabilistic approach that evaluates the consequences of setting each possible reserve level through a set of risk indices is compared with frequently used deterministic rules and a probabilistic rule where wind power uncertainty is described by a Gaussian distribution. The comparison is performed over a period of five months for a realistic power system, using real load and wind power generation data. Results highlight the limitations of deterministic rules, challenge the Gaussian assumption and illustrate the usefulness of risk indices derived from the probabilistic forecast and using a full probabilistic methodology. (9 pages)