Comparison of predictive power of Padua Scale and Wells Scale on stroke complicated with deep venous thrombosis

Abstract

Objective To compare the predictive power of Padua Scale and Wells Scale on stroke complicated with deep venous thrombosis (DVT) . Methods Totally 300 patients with stroke admitted in the Department of Neurology, Peking University Third Hospital from November 2016 to November 2017 were selected by convenient sampling and investigated with Padua Scale and Wells Scale. The incidence of DVT was determined according to color Doppler ultrasonography for deep veins. The predictive power of the two scales on stroke complicated with DVT was evaluated; and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) model was established to compare the sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC (AUC) . The positive and negative predictive values of the two scales were calculated. Results Both scales could predict the risks of stroke complicated with DVT (P<0.01) . The AUC of Padua Scale and Wells Scale was 0.802 (95%CI=0.704-0.900) and 0.746 (95%CI=0.642-0.851) . The sensitivity of Padua Scale and Wells Scale at the best cutoff value was 80.00% and 64.00%, and their specificity was 58.18% and 77.82%. Their positive predictive values were 14.81% and 20.78%, and their negative predictive values were 96.96% and 95.96%. Conclusions Padua Scale is more suitable for predicting the risk of DVT in lower extremities of patients with stroke. Key words: Stroke; Deep venous thrombosis; Padua Scale; Wells Scale; Risk prediction