Comparison of observed hmF2 and the IRI-2020 model for six stations in East Asia during the declining phase of the solar cycle 24

Abstract

The height of the F2 peak electron density (hmF2) is a critical parameter in ionospheric electrodynamics and high-frequency wireless communication research. This study analyzed and compared data from six stations to validate the long-term predictive capabilities of three forecasting modes of the IRI-2020 for hmF2 in the East Asia region. Specifically, the three models of IRI-2020 for the hmF2 prediction are the BSE model proposed in 1955, the AMTB model presented in 2013, and the SHU model proposed in 2015. The experimental results indicate that the SHU model exhibits the most minor prediction error and the highest prediction accuracy for East Asia, demonstrating significant advantages over the other models (BSE and AMTB). Specifically, compared to the BSE model and the AMTB model, the SHU model reduces the mean absolute error by 2.66 km and 8.11 km, the root mean square error by 2.27 km and 8.62 km, and the relative root mean square error by 1.34 % and 3.84 %, respectively. The statistical results of the experimental also show that the predictive power of the AMTB model is more affected by solar activity than that of the BSE model and the SHU model. For the low-latitude region (SANYA), the BSE model exhibits the best predictive capability. In terms of season, the three models of IRI overestimated hmF2 in most cases.