Comparison of Observations and Predictions of Daytime Planetary-Boundary-Layer Heights and Surface Meteorological Variables in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project

Laura Bianco,R Kotamarthi,J B Olson,D D Turner,I Djalalova,P Muradyan,J M Wilczak,K Lantz,J S Kenyon,C N Long

doi:10.1007/s10546-021-00645-x

Abstract

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is an 18-month field campaign in the Pacific Northwest U.S.A., whose goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical-weather-prediction forecasts in complex terrain. The WFIP2 campaign involved the deployment of a large suite of in situ and remote sensing instrumentation, including eight 915-MHz wind-profiling radars, and surface meteorological stations. The evolution and annual variability of the daytime convective planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) height is investigated using the wind-profiling radars. Three models with different horizontal grid spacing are evaluated: the Rapid Refresh, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, and its nested version. The results are used to assess errors in the prediction of PBL height within the experimental and control versions of the models, with the experimental versions including changes and additions to the model parametrizations developed during the field campaign, and the control version using the parametrizations present in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational version of the models at the start of the project. Results show that the high-resolution models outperform the low-resolution versions, the experimental versions perform better compared with the control versions, model PBL height estimations are more accurate on cloud-free days, and model estimates of the PBL height growth rate are more accurate than model estimates of the rate of decay. Finally, using surface sensors, we assess surface meteorological variables, finding improved surface irradiance and, to a lesser extent, improved 2-m temperature in the experimental version of the model.

Highlights

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is a Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) sponsored program whose goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical-weather-prediction (NWP) forecasts in complex terrain
Data collected during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2, October 2015—March 2017, in the Pacific Northwest U.S.A.) are used to evaluate the impact of improvements and additions made to the RAP, HRRR, and HRRRNEST model parametrizations on simulating the PBL height, as well as surface meteorological forcing variables that influence the evolution of the PBL
Higher-resolution model versions outperform the lower-resolution versions in estimating the convective PBL height;

Summary

Introduction

During the WFIP2, a large set of instruments was deployed in the states of Washington and Oregon, U.S.A., in the Columbia River Gorge and basin area, to improve understanding of flows in complex terrain, and to assess and improve the accuracy of several of NOAA’s weather forecast models This area is well known for its high wind-energy generation, with approximately 6 GW of total installed capacity in the WFIP2 study region at the time of the field campaign.. This area is well known for its high wind-energy generation, with approximately 6 GW of total installed capacity in the WFIP2 study region at the time of the field campaign.1 This area is unique for planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) processes driven or affected by the local topography, which are not always easy to forecast. The 18-month duration of the campaign (October 2015–March 2017) allowed the sampling of the above-mentioned atmospheric phenomena that are important in this area throughout the annual cycle

Objectives

Results

Conclusion