Comparison of methods in estimating Weibull parameters for wind energy applications

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to select the most accurate and the most efficient method in estimating Weibull parameters at Agadir region in Morocco.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, Weibull distribution is used to model the wind speed in hourly time series format. Since several methods are used to adjust the Weibull distribution to the measured data, in reporting and analyzing the easiest and the most effective method, seven methods have been investigated, namely, the graphical method (GM), the maximum likelihood method (MLM), the empirical method of Justus (EMJ), the empirical method of Lysen (EML), the energy pattern factor method (EPFM), Mabchour’s method (MMab) and the method of moments (MM).FindingsAccording to the statistical analysis tools (the coefficient of determination, root mean square error and chi-square test), it was found that for five months, the MLM presents more efficiency, and for four months, EMJ is ranked first and it is ranked second for February. To select only one method, the selected methods (MLM and EMJ) were compared by calculating the error in estimating the power density using Weibull distribution adjusted by those methods. The average error was found to be −0.51 and −4.56 per cent for MLM and EMJ, respectively.Originality/valueThis investigation is the first of its kind for the studied region. To estimate the available wind power at Agadir in Morocco, investors can directly use MLM to determine the Weibull parameters at this site.