Comparison of methods for calculating and extrapolating equilibria in P-T-X CO2 space

Abstract

<h3>Abstract</h3> <b>Objectives:</b> To evaluate whether the projected 24% reduction in acute bed numbers in Lothian hospitals, which formed part of the private finance initiative (PFI) plans for the replacement Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, is being compensated for by improvements in efficiency and greater use of community facilities, and to ascertain whether there is an independent PFI effect by comparing clinical activity and performance in acute specialties in Lothian hospitals with other NHS hospitals in Scotland. <b>Design:</b> Comparison of projected and actual trends in acute bed capacity and inpatient and day case admissions in the first five years (1995-6 to 2000-1) of Lothian Health Board9s integrated healthcare plan. Population study of trends in bed rate, hospital activity, length of stay, and throughput in Lothian hospitals compared with the rest of Scotland from 1990–1 to 2000-1. <b>Main outcome measures:</b> Staffed bed rates, admission rates, mean lengths of stay, occupancy, and throughput in four adult acute specialty groups in 1990-1, 1995-6, and 2000-1. <b>Results:</b> By 2000-1, rates for inpatient admission in all acute, medical, surgical, and intensive therapy specialties in Lothian hospitals were respectively 20%, 6%, 28%, and 38% below those in the rest of Scotland. Day case rates in all acute and acute surgical specialties were 13% and 33% lower. The proportion of delayed discharges in staffed acute and post-acute NHS beds in Lothian hospitals exceeded the Scottish average (15% and 12% respectively; P&lt;0.001). <b>Conclusion:</b> The planning targets and increase in clinical activity in acute specialties in Lothian hospitals associated with PFI had not been achieved by 2000-1. The effect on clinical activity has been a steeper decline in the number of acute beds and rates of admission in Lothian hospitals compared with the rest of Scotland between 1995–6 and 2000-1. <h3>What is already known on this topic</h3> The full business cases for the 15 first wave private finance initiative (PFI) hospitals in England and Scotland projected reductions in acute beds of about 30% in the five years before the opening of the new replacement hospitals The new PFI Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, which will fully open in 2003, is the cornerstone of Lothian Health Board9s healthcare plan for its acute hospitals <h3>What this study adds</h3> Compared with other Scottish NHS hospitals, service delivery has been reduced across Lothian associated with PFI development The planning targets and increase in clinical activity in acute specialties in Lothian hospitals had not been achieved by 2000-1 There is evidence of an independent “PFI effect” on hospital downsizing and bed reductions, which in Lothian has resulted in severe capacity constraints across all acute specialties with a need for immediate expansion in acute and community provision Further hospital and community service downsizing may be required to meet the financial deficit, which is principally due to the high costs of PFI