Comparison of M5 Model Tree and Artificial Neural Network’s Methodologies in Modelling Daily Reference Evapotranspiration from NOAA Satellite Images

Abstract

The objective of this study was to compare feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) and M5 model tree for estimating reference evapotranspiration (ET0) only on the basis of the remote sensing based surface temperature (Ts) data. The input variables for these models were the daytime surface temperature at the cold pixel obtained from the AVHRR/NOAA sensor and extraterrestrial radiation (Ra). The study has been carried out in five irrigated units that cultivate sugar cane, which located in the Khuzestan plain in the southwest of Iran. A total of 663 images of NOAA–AVHRR level 1b during the period 1999–2009, covering the area of this study were collected from the Satellite Active Archive of NOAA. The FAO-56 Penman–Monteith model was used as a reference model for assessing the performance of the two above approaches. The study demonstrated that modelling of ET0 through the use of M5 model tree gave better estimates than the ANN technique. However, differences with the ANN model are small. Root mean square error and R2 for the comparison between reference and estimated ET0 for the tested data set using the proposed M5 model are 13.7 % and 0.96, respectively. For the ANN model these values are 14.3 % and 0.95, respectively.