Comparison of long-term survival of neoadjuvant therapy plus surgery versus upfront surgery and the role of adjuvant therapy for T1b-2N0-1 esophageal cancer: a population study of the SEER database and Chinese cohort.

Abstract

For stage T1b-2N0-1 esophageal cancer, the impact of neoadjuvant therapy plus surgery (NS), surgery alone (SA), and surgery plus adjuvant therapy (ST) on cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) is uncertain. Stage T1b-2N0-1 esophageal cancer patients from the SEER database and two Chinese cancer centers were included in this study. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot survival curves, which were compared using the log-rank test. Propensity score matching was used to equalize differences between the groups. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to analyze prognostic factors. A nomogram for OS was developed after screening the variables using the Cox proportional hazards regression model and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by the Harrell concordance index (C-index), the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. After propensity score matching analysis, the 3-year CSS and OS rates in the NS group compared to the SA group were 80.3% versus 62.1% (P=0.016) and 75.8% versus 55.5% (P=0.006), the 3-year CSS and OS rates in the NS group compared to the ST group were 71.3% versus 68.3% (P=0.560) and 69.8% versus 62.9% (P=0.330), the 3-year CSS and OS rates in the SA group compared to the ST group were 54.6% versus 66.7% (P=0.220) and 50.2% versus 57.9% (P=0.290), respectively. The predictive nomogram for OS in T1b-2N0-1 patients ultimately incorporated five clinicopathological variables: T stage, N stage, age, examined lymph nodes , and therapy modality. The nomogram C-index for predicting OS was 0.648, 0.663, and 0.666 in the training group, external validation group-1, and external validation group-2, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year predicted AUC values of the OS prediction model were 0.659, 0.639, and 0.612 for the training group, and 0.786, 0.758, and 0.692 for validation group-1, and 0.805, 0.760, and 0.693 for validation group-2, respectively. For patients with stage T1b-2N0-1 esophageal cancer, neoadjuvant therapy significantly improves prognosis compared to surgery alone, those presenting with positive lymph nodes after upfront surgery can achieve survival benefits from adjuvant therapy.