Comparison of life loss per death attributable to ambient temperature among various development regions: a nationwide study in 364 locations in China

Siqi Chen,Yonghui Zhang,Jianxiong Hu,Yize Xiao,Min Yu,Yanjun Xu,Xiaojun Xu,Lingchuan Guo,Tao Liu,Junhua Li,Ruying Hu,Maigeng Zhou,Weilin Zeng,Mingfang Qin,Jianpeng Xiao,Lifeng Lin,Yuliang Xu ,Weiwei Gong,Donghui Jin,Qian Zhao ,Zhulin Hou,Chunliang Zhou,Xing Li,Biao Huang,Peng Yin,Cunrui Huang

doi:10.1186/s12940-020-00653-3

Abstract

BackgroundSeveral studies have investigated the associations between ambient temperature and years of life lost (YLLs), but few focused on the difference of life loss attributable to temperature among different socioeconomic development levels.ObjectivesWe investigated the disparity in temperature-YLL rate relationships and life loss per death attributable to nonoptimal temperature in regions with various development levels.MethodsThree hundred sixty-four Chinese counties or districts were classified into 92 high-development regions (HDRs) and 272 low-development regions (LDRs) according to socioeconomic factors of each location using K-means clustering approach. We used distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) and multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the temperature-YLL rate relationships. We calculated attributable fraction (AF) of YLL and temperature-related average life loss per death to compare mortality burden of temperature between HDRs and LDRs. Stratified analyses were conducted by region, age, sex and cause of death.ResultsWe found that non-optimal temperatures increased YLL rates in both HDRs and LDRs, but all subgroups in LDRs were more vulnerable. The disparity of cold effects between HDRs and LDRs was significant, while the difference in heat effect was insignificant. The overall AF of non-optimal temperature in LDRs [AF = 12.2, 95% empirical confidence interval (eCI):11.0–13.5%] was higher than that in HDRs (AF = 8.9, 95% eCI: 8.3–9.5%). Subgroups analyses found that most groups in LDRs had greater AFs than that in HDRs. The average life loss per death due to non-optimal temperature in LDRs (1.91 years, 95% eCI: 1.72–2.10) was also higher than that in HDRs (1.32 years, 95% eCI: 1.23–1.41). Most of AFs and life loss per death were caused by moderate cold in both HDRs and LDRs.ConclusionsMortality burden caused by temperature was more significant in LDRs than that in HDRs, which means that more attention should be paid to vulnerable populations in LDRs in planning adaptive strategies.

Highlights

Climate change is widely recognized as one of the major public health threats of the twenty-first century
We found that non-optimal temperatures increased Years of life lost (YLL) rates in both high-development regions (HDRs) and low-development regions (LDRs), but all subgroups in LDRs were more vulnerable
Most of attributable fraction (AF) and life loss per death were caused by moderate cold in both HDRs and LDRs

Summary

Introduction

Climate change is widely recognized as one of the major public health threats of the twenty-first century. Most previous studies used death count as a primary health outcome to examine the effects of ambient temperature exposure [2, 6]. This indicator takes only the number of deaths into account and not the age at death. It does not represent the real burden of exposure to ambient temperature. Several studies have investigated the associations between ambient temperature and years of life lost (YLLs), but few focused on the difference of life loss attributable to temperature among different socioeconomic development levels

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Conclusion