Abstract
Two commonly used models to assess air pollution concentration for investigating health effects of air pollution in epidemiological studies are Land Use Regression (LUR) models and Dispersion and Chemistry Transport Models (DCTM). Both modeling approaches have been applied in the Ruhr area, Germany, a location where multiple cohort studies are being conducted. Application of these different modelling approaches leads to differences in exposure estimation and interpretation due to the specific characteristics of each model. We aimed to compare both model approaches by means of their respective aims, modeling characteristics, validation, temporal and spatial resolution, and agreement of residential exposure estimation, referring to the air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, and NO2. Residential exposure referred to air pollution exposure at residences of participants of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study, located in the Ruhr area. The point-specific ESCAPE (European Study of Cohorts on Air Pollution Effects)-LUR aims to temporally estimate stable long-term exposure to local, mostly traffic-related air pollution with respect to very small-scale spatial variations (≤100 m). In contrast, the EURAD (European Air Pollution Dispersion)-CTM aims to estimate a time-varying average air pollutant concentration in a small area (i.e., 1 km2), taking into account a range of major sources, e.g., traffic, industry, meteorological conditions, and transport. Overall agreement between EURAD-CTM and ESCAPE-LUR was weak to moderate on a residential basis. Restricting EURAD-CTM to sources of local traffic only, respective agreement was good. The possibility of combining the strengths of both applications will be the next step to enhance exposure assessment.
Highlights
A large number of epidemiological studies have shown associations between short-and/or long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution and adverse health effects [1]
We aim to compare the ESCAPE-Land Use Regression (LUR) model and the EURAD-chemistry Transport Model Models (CTM) model focusing on their respective strengths and limitations
In addition to that the HNR study area is located within N3, one of the smallest sequential nests developed for the air pollution modelling purposes of EURAD-CTM
Summary
A large number of epidemiological studies have shown associations between short-and/or long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution and adverse health effects [1]. Considering short-term health effects in ecological time-series studies on air pollution and mortality, it seems reasonable to assume such a spatially-uniform temporal elevation or reduction in air pollution concentration because they are dependent on the underlying meteorological conditions. When considering long-term health effects on an individual basis, the spatial and spatio-temporal variations are of great importance given that outdoor air pollution concentrations vary on a small spatial scale, e.g., within. More recent epidemiological studies have, approached such small-scale intra-urban variation of air pollution concentrations by using different types of models, such as Land.
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