Comparison of informative modelling and machine learning methods in landslide vulnerability evaluation – a case study of Wenchuan County, China

Abstract

After the earthquake in Wenchuan in 2008, landslides have been happening frequently, causing a buildup of sediment in slopes and gullies. This creates a potential for mudslides and flash floods. It is important to create a model to assess the likelihood of landslides in Wenchuan County for disaster prevention. This study focuses on Wenchuan County, using 6180 co-seismic landslide sites as data. The relevant survey data is combined, and slope, normalized difference vegetation Index (NDVI), peak seismic acceleration (PGA), stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), distance from the road, distance from the fault, distance from the water system, relief intensity, aspect, curvature, land use type, and lithologic characters are chosen. The significance of the co-seismic landslide key influence factors is discussed. The study area’s disaster susceptibility was assessed using the informative hierarchical analysis method model (I-AHP) and fully connected neural network (FCNN) model; the evaluation’s findings mostly agreed with the survey’s actual findings. The study’s findings demonstrated that: (1) the FCNN model’s AUC value was 0.910, while the I-AHP model’s AUC value was 0.768, and the ROC curve and AUC value analysis indicated that the FCNN model outperformed the I-AHP model. (2) The three most significant influencing factors are lithology, topographic relief, and distance from roads; they account for 29.5%, 11%, and 10% of the total, respectively. Thus, landslide hazard research should be done in the high terrain undulating areas surrounding the road, and rock monitoring should be intensified in post-earthquake landslide-prone areas like Wenchuan County. (3) Given that Yingxiu Town is the epicentre of the region and that landslide disasters are highly likely to occur there, technical support for landslide disaster prediction, forecasting, safe prevention, and control in the area needs to be strengthened.