Comparison of Holland’s Model and Near-Real-Time Predicting System

Abstract

Hurricanes have affected many tropical and coastal countries for years, but the history of hurricane simulation is short, due to the unpredictable nature of hurricanes. Although several models and methods developed by numerous scientists in the past have substantially enhanced people’s understanding of hurricanes’ formations and features, not all of the errors have been eliminated. To display the improvements of hurricane simulation in the past decades, in this paper, both the advantages and limitations of Holland’s wind model and a new near-real-time prediction model are compared by presenting their key calculations and main ideas, respectively. The modern near-real-time predicting system turns out to be more extensive and exact than the Holland’s wind model. Besides, the idea of the Monte Carlo simulation approach, an accepted hurricane simulation method, is briefly stated for the sake of complete understanding.