Comparison of GPS-derived TEC with IRI-2012 and IRI-2007 TEC predictions at Surat, a location around the EIA crest in the Indian sector, during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24

Abstract

This paper presents a comparison of GPS-derived TEC with IRI-2012 and IRI-2007 TEC Predictions at Surat (21.16°N Geographic latitude, 72.78°E Geographic longitude, 12.90°N Geomagnetic latitude) a location around the Equatorial Ionisation Anomaly (EIA) crest in the Indian sector, during the Ascending Phase of Solar Cycle 24, for a period of three years (January 2010–December 2012). In this comparison, plasmaspheric electron content (PEC) contribution to the GPS-TEC has been removed. It is observed that percentage PEC contribution to the GPS-TEC varies from about ∼15% (at the noon local time) to about ∼30% (at the morning local time). From the monthly comparison of GPS-TEC with IRI-TEC, it is observed that, TEC predicted by both the models overestimates in June-2012 and underestimates TEC in November-2011, December-2011 and March-2011. For all other months IRI estimates the TEC well. From the seasonal comparison, it is observed that the peak time appears ∼1-h later than the actual peak time in Winter 2010, Summer 2011, and Equinox 2010 and 2012 (the result suggest that it may be due to discrepancies/disagreement of both the versions of the IRI model in estimating the peak density as well as the thickness and shape parameters of the electron density profiles). For the Summer season, the IRI-TEC estimates the TEC well for all the years. Further, the seasonal variation of the GPS-TEC for all the three years matches well with IRI-2012 model compared to IRI-2007 model. Also, the mean annual TEC is predicted well by both the versions of the IRI model.