Comparison of Generalized Linear Model between Gamma and Tweedie Compound Response for Rainfall Prediction in Lampung Province

Abstract

Rainfall plays a pivotal role in influencing agricultural production in Lampung province. The precision of rainfall predictions holds significant importance for enhancing agricultural yields in the region. One effective approach for modeling rainfall is Statistical Downscaling (SD), which employs statistical models to examine the correlation between large-scale (global) climatological data and small-scale (local) data. SD addresses the limitation of global scale data, such as the General Circulation Model (GCM), which lacks the resolution to directly forecast localized climate conditions like rainfall. Rainfall can be broadly categorized into continuous and discrete components. The continuous component delineates the intensity of rainfall, while the discrete component describes the occurrence of rain. Both components are integral to accurate rainfall predictions. The mixed Tweedie distribution, combining Gamma and Poisson distributions, is proficient in handling both continuous and discrete components of rainfall. GCMs commonly encounter multicollinearity issues in SD modeling, which can be mitigated through Principal Component Analysis. This study seeks to compare two regression models: the generalized linear model with a gamma response and the Tweedie compound response. Rainfall data from three distinct regions in Lampung province, representing high, medium, and lowlands, is utilized. The research findings indicate that, for high and lowlands, the Tweedie compound exhibits a smaller Root Mean Square Error of Prediction (RMSEP) compared to gamma. Conversely, in medium lands, gamma-GLM demonstrates a smaller RMSEP value than the Tweedie compound. Thus, the distribution of the Tweedie compound is better suited for use than Gamma-GLM, especially for high and lowland areas.