Abstract
This study evaluated 20 general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which provide the prediction results for the period of 2006 to 2014, the period from which the observation data (the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data) are available. Both the GCM predictions of precipitation and the GPCP data were compared for three data structures—the global, zonal, and grid mean—with conventional statistics like the root mean square error (RMSE) and the pattern correlation coefficient of the cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). As a result, it was possible to select a GCM which showed the best performance among the 20 GCMs considered in this study. Overall, the NorSM1-M model was found to be the most similar to the GPCP data. Additionally, the IPSL-CM5A-LR, BCC-CSM, and GFDL-CMS models were also found to be quite similar to the GPCP data.
Highlights
Due to global warming, most countries are currently preparing for a future with different climate conditions
The general circulation models (GCMs) considered in this study were all those covering the period from 2006 to 2014, which was the maximum to be considered in this study for the comparison of the GCM predictions and GPCP
The comparison was done for three data structures, being the global, zonal, and grid means, along with those conventional statistics like the root mean square error (RMSE) and the pattern correlation coefficient of the cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs)
Summary
Most countries are currently preparing for a future with different climate conditions. RCP8.5 represents the case where the total greenhouse gases is that predicted if no changes are implemented, and the trend of emission observed in the early 21st century continues [2]. Most studies have focused on comparing the basic statistics of the GCM predictions with observed data; this is insufficient for application to the global climate system, which shows a strong non-linear behavior. The GCMs to be compared are those that provide the GCM predictions over the period of 2006 to 2014, which is the period for which the global precipitation data from GPCP are available. More than 60 GCM predictions of CMIP5 are available from the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC). The GPCP data were collected for the period of 2006 to 2014, for comparison with the GCM predictions.
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