Abstract
In Indonesia, dengue has become one of the hyperendemic diseases. Dengue consists of three clinical phases—febrile phase, critical phase, and recovery phase. Many patients have died in the critical phase due to the lack of proper and timely treatment. Therefore, we developed models that can predict the severity level of dengue based on the laboratory test results of the corresponding patients using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Discriminant Analysis (DA). In developing the models, we used a very small dataset. It is shown that ANN models developed using logistic and hyperbolic tangent activation function with 70% training data yielded the highest accuracy (90.91%), sensitivity (91.11%), and specificity (95.51%). This is the proposed model in this research. The proposed model will be able to help physicians in predicting the severity level of dengue patients before entering the critical phase. Furthermore, it will ease physicians in treating dengue patients early, so fatal cases or deaths can be avoided.
Highlights
Accepted: 30 December 2020Dengue is an acute febrile disease caused by dengue virus (DENV)
We developed models that can predict the severity level of dengue based on the laboratory test results of the corresponding patients using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Discriminant Analysis (DA)
The first model that we developed was Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) model, and the second one was Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA) model
Summary
Accepted: 30 December 2020Dengue is an acute febrile disease caused by dengue virus (DENV). Dengue incidences happen in tropical and subtropical countries, such as South America, Southeast Asia, etc. Dengue incidences usually occur in the rainy season, and happen in urban and suburban areas. Based on a study that analyzed 130 countries, there were around 9221 dengue deaths per year from 1990 to 2013, with the lowest of 8277 in 1992, and the highest of 11,302 in 2010 [2]. Dengue had made Indonesia suffered the most significant economic loss in Southeast Asia. The average annual economic burden of dengue in Indonesia was approximately USD 381.5 million. Indonesia has the highest dengue infection rate in Southeast Asia and the second-highest dengue infection rate in the world after Brazil [3]. In 2017, there were 59,047 Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF)
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