Comparison of deep learning models to traditional Cox regression in predicting survival of colon cancer: Based on the SEER database.

Abstract

In this study, a deep learning algorithm was used to predict the survival rate of colon cancer (CC) patients, and compared its performance with traditional Cox regression. In this population-based cohort study, we used the characteristics of patients diagnosed with CC between 2010 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The population was randomized into a training set (n=10596, 70%) and a test set (n=4536, 30%). Brier scores, area under the (AUC) receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration curves were used to compare the performance of the three most popular deep learning models, namely, artificial neural networks (ANN), deep neural networks (DNN), and long-short term memory (LSTM) neural networks with Cox proportional hazard (CPH) model. In the independent test set, the Brier values of ANN, DNN, LSTM and CPH were 0.155, 0.149, 0.148, and 0.170, respectively. The AUC values were 0.906 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.897-0.916), 0.908 (95% CI 0.899-0.918), 0.910 (95% CI 0.901-0.919), and 0.793 (95% CI 0.769-0.816), respectively. Deep learning showed superior promising results than CPH in predicting CC specific survival. Deep learning showed potential advantages over traditional CPH models in terms of prognostic assessment and treatment recommendations. LSTM exhibited optimal predictive accuracy and has the ability to provide reliable information on individual survival and treatment recommendations for CC patients.