Comparison of deep and conventional machine learning models for prediction of one supply chain management distribution cost

Abstract

Strategic supply chain management (SCM) is essential for organizations striving to optimize performance and attain their goals. Prediction of supply chain management distribution cost (SCMDC) is one branch of SCM and it’s essential for organizations striving to optimize performance and attain their goals. For this purpose, four machine learning algorithms, including random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), multilayer perceptron (MLP) and decision tree (DT), along with deep learning using convolutional neural network (CNN), was used to predict and analyze SCMDC. A comprehensive dataset consisting of 180,519 open-source data points was used for analyze and make the structure of each algorithm. Evaluation based on Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation coefficient (R2) show the CNN model has high accuracy in SCMDC prediction than other models. The CNN algorithm demonstrated exceptional accuracy on the test dataset, with an RMSE of RMSE of 0.528 and an R2 value of 0.953. Notable advantages of CNNs include automatic learning of hierarchical features, proficiency in capturing spatial and temporal patterns, computational efficiency, robustness to data variations, minimal preprocessing requirements, end-to-end training capability, scalability, and widespread adoption supported by extensive research. These attributes position the CNN algorithm as the preferred choice for precise and reliable SCMDC predictions, especially in scenarios requiring rapid responses and limited computational resources.