COMPARISON OF CLASSIFICATION PERFORMANCE OF MACHINE LEARNING METHODS IN PREDICTION FINANCIAL FAILURE: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA İSTANBUL

Abstract

This study aimed to predict the 1 to 2 year future time of the financial failure of 86 manufacturing companies that are operating in Borsa İstanbul. The data comprised of 2010-2012 period, and it depends on 8 quantitative financial variables. Beside 6 variables come from non financial statements. In the study, Artificial Neural Network (NN), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) were used to compare classification performances of related methods. ROC Curve was used to compare the classification performance of the methods. As a result of the analyseis, the overall classification accuracy from the highest to the lowest was SVM (92,31%), CART (88,46%), ANN (84,62%) and KNN (80,77%) 2 years before the financial failure. The overall classification accuracy from the highest to the lowest was CART (96,15%), ANN (92,31%), SVM (80,77%) and KNN (84,62%) 1 year before the financial failure. Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Assets Ratio (ROA) were found as important variables in the creation of the CART decision tree. The fact that the four models obtained in thise study predicted financial success/failure at a higher rate, and it shows that the models obtained in this study can be included in the models used by relevant people.